Frameworks

Windows 8 Will Succeed, Even If It Fails

All indications now point toward an October release of Windows 8. And ever since the beta was released on Feb. 29, the critics have been descending. The No. 1 complaint, by far, is that the new OS feels cobbled together; that by trying to build Windows 8 for both touchscreen and more traditional devices, neither version feels complete and "finished." It's the worst of both worlds, some say. Some are even bringing up the dreaded "V" word.

"I know Windows 8 will be a Vista-sized fiasco," lamented ZDNet's Steven J. Vaughan, among many others. So, are the naysayers correct? Is Windows 8 destined to be a punch line in the not-too-distant future?

To quote the eminent philosopher, Emperor Kuzco: "Don't know, don't care. How's that?" I honestly don't know how well Windows 8 will fare in the market. Based on the beta, it's likely to be a strong OS out of the gate, even if it retains some rough edges. Of course, that's no guarantee of success.

As for the second part, the "Don't care" aspect: I don't care how well it sells, because it's a step Microsoft had to take, whether it wanted to or not. Microsoft is going to learn a tremendous amount from Windows 8, whether it's a small, medium or large success, or a small, medium or Titanic-sized failure.

Windows 7 is a great OS, thus Windows 8 could suffer in the same way that Windows Vista suffered by following Windows XP. But don't forget that Windows 7 took the lessons from Windows Vista, applied them, and became a star.

Microsoft couldn't sit back and admire the success of Windows 7, and not plan for the evolving technology marketplace. I see Windows 8 as a foot in the pool. If it sells like gangbusters, great. If it falls flat, it'll still lead the way toward Windows 9.

About the Author

Keith Ward is the editor in chief of Visual Studio Magazine.

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Reader Comments:

Tue, Oct 30, 2012 Andrew

The windows pc is a critical part of a modern lifestyle (for most people and business). Vista threatened this and so was an unmitigated disaster. With windows 8 the old adage of 'once bitten, twice shy' will apply. Most people and business I know were running windows XP and have just now upgraded to windows 7 to avoid having to chance it with windows 8. No doubt microsoft know this. Windows 8 seems to be a bit of a testbed.

Tue, May 29, 2012

The fallacy in your argument lies with this fanciful notion that Microsoft remains capable of learning from its mistakes, despite the overwhelming evidence to the contrary. Many should, and will likely, write quite a number of books about ongoing collapse of their once mighty empire, but there are few more tragic examples of the degree to which Redmond's lost its way than its embarrassingly sad handling of Silverlight. Despite its regularly-scheduled failings in the consumer space, with the exception of XBox, and its nearly-complete inability to create something about which developers (yes, those very developers the suits in Redmond love to claim are the basis of past success), Microsoft massively succeeded in dominating the enterprise. Then, to the surprise of so many, something new emerged from Redmond, something about which hordes of developers became empassioned, like no other time in the company's history - Silverlight - a monumental achievement, five unbelievably solid releases so stacked upon one another, it seemed an entirely different company must have been it's source. And yet, this having been Microsoft's greatest achievement, now and forever, it was abandoned, along with the vast number of developers in which Microsoft had finally - finally - nurtured an intense passion. Redmond won't talk about it, but the damage to Microsoft, both internally, among the developer community and most all, the enterprise community, was without limits. Projects cancelled, contracts cancelled, jobs lost, people hurt - for while Apple can thrive on rampant speculation on what lies ahead for iPhone 5, the enterprise will not gamble when it comes to technology investment, yet no roadmap whatsoever came from Redmond. All as if it didn't matter, as if we - the Silverlight disciples and corporate America does not matter. A deafening silence that said, resoundingly, 'Screw you and the technology you rode in on...' And for what? A misguided consumer play that will be an epic fail studied in business schools for decases to come. All at the cost of lost credibility that cannot be regained - too little draw for consumers, nothing to offer the enterprise and most of all, so little reason to trust. Just never knew that Ballmer, Sinofsky and Ken Olsen had so much in common. Scott Guthrie, wherefore art thou?

Tue, May 29, 2012

The premise of your argument is that the market will stay with Windows no matter the quality of what they release. This has been the case for the last 30+ years, but times they are a changing. Microsoft may find they do not have captive audience they think they do. As people move to more cloud and device based computing, the desktop/server OS become less critical and easier to migrate from. Windows 8 might be the "push" people need to leave Windows behind once and for all.

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